GHG inventory continued (part5)

E) 

ENERGY:

Energy is not only UK’s largest contributor of emissions (35 percent) but it is also the world’s largest source of GHG emissions.

Among various sources like refineries, offshore oil and gas production, coal mines, and power generation is the largest source in this sector in UK, with carbon dioxide being the dominant gas emitted.

Emissions are anticipated from an emissions factor and/ or statistical data from various sources (depending on the gas being estimated). These data sources need to be updated on regular basis to make accurate emission approximations.

Due to transition initiatives for a low carbon future changes in the fuel (power generation) and reduced emissions (offshore oil and gas) may cause a decrease in the emissions by 2025. These projections are made by the DECC’s Updated Energy and Emissions Projections (2011, 2012).

References:

·         UK GHG Inventory: http://ghgi.decc.gov.uk/

·         UK GHG National Statistics: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/hub/agriculture environment/environment/climate-change/index.html

·         UK Updated Energy Projections: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/about/ec_social_res/analytic_projs/en_emis_projs/en_

·         emis_projs.aspx

·         Digest of UK Energy Statistics: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/publications/dukes/dukes.aspx

GHG inventory continued (part4)

D)
 RESIDENTIAL:

Like most other sectors mentioned in my blog (except agricultural sector) carbon dioxide is the dominant GHG in the residential sector (dominated by stationary combustion) of UK emits 15 percent of the total GHG’s (2010).

Emissions from different sources need a different approach while estimating amount of emissions (follow certain guidelines mostly IPCC and UNECE), like the domestic fuel combustion (from heating and cooking) emissions are calculated from the activity (fuel use) and emission factor. Emissions from aerosols, metered dose inhalers (MDI) are based on numerical data (HFC content in aerosols, quantity released during manufacturing, use, disposal etc) of HFC’s while the same approach is used for the breakdown of consumer products (soaps, detergents), except estimates of carbon are used.

The projections of the DECC’s Updated Energy and Emissions Projections (2011, 2012) state that emissions are expected to decrease by 23 percent by 2025.

References:

·         UK GHG Inventory: http://ghgi.decc.gov.uk/

·         UK GHG National Statistics: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/hub/agriculture-environment/environment/climate-change/index.html

·         UK Updated Energy Projections: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/about/ec_social_res/analytic_projs/en_emis_projs/en_emis_projs.aspx

·         DUKES: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/publications/dukes/dukes.aspx

·         BAMA: http://www.bama.co.uk/

GHG inventory continued (part3)

C)

TRANSPORT:

The transport sector in UK contributes 21 percent of GHG emissions (in 2010, refer to graph in previous slide).  The graph shows an evident decline in emission after 2007 (due to improved fuel efficiency).

Owing to the increasing number of vehicles leading to increased traffic congestions, road transport is the dominant emitting subsector followed by equal contribution from other subsectors (refer to graph), with carbon dioxide amounting to 99 percent of the GHG’s emitted (Dept of Transport).

The transport sector has many subsectors like road transport, railway, aviation and shipping, each of which requires different considerations (mobile or stationary phase) and calculations when determining the emissions (depending on the fuel used, and GHG emitted). Apart from including emissions from inland waterways, improved methods like automatic number plate recognition data and regional licensing data (to define the fuel and age mix of vehicles on different types of roads) have been incorporated to differentiate the amount of fuel consumed by different vehicles.

Calculation of emissions from road transport (estimated using activity data, fuel property and emissions factor or numerical data like vehicle type, age, fuel type, speed, distance travelled etc) and aviation (estimates based on numerical data like type of aircraft) comply with the IPCC tier3 specifications (these are guidelines which consists of mathematical methods, data on emission factors or other parameters, used in generating estimates, and activity data to estimate net emissions). Emissions from railway include stationary and mobile phases, where emission factor and activity data (fuel used or distance travelled by train) is used to estimate emissions. When considering emissions from the shipping sector, coastal/domestic (include inland waterways and international marine) shipping, and military aircraft and naval shipping, must be considered, these are estimated using activity data (fuel consumption), statistical data (population, engine size and hours of use of different types of craft) and in some cases an emissions factor is also used.

Road transport emissions are expected to decrease thereby causing a 12 percent (between 2010- 2025) reduction in the emissions from transport (impacts of emissions trading have been excluded). These projections are from the DECC’s Updated Energy and Emissions Projections (2011, 2012).

References:

K

UK GHG Inventory: http://ghgi.decc.gov.uk/

·         UK GHG National Statistics: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/hub/agriculture-environment/environment/climate-change/index.html

·UK,UpdatedEnergyProjections: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/about/ec_social_res/analytic_projs/en_emis_projs/en_emis_projs.aspx

·         Department for Transport: http://www.dft.gov.uk/

·         UK Civil Aviation Authority: http://www.caa.co.uk/ 

·         IPCC guidelines: http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/0_Overview/V0_1_Overview.pdf

GHG inventory continued (part2).

B)

AGRICULTURE:

With the increasing population and consumption rates the pressure on the agricultural sector has increased tremendously leading to increased use of fertilizers, machines all of which contribute to increase in GHG’s.  The agricultural sector contributes to 8.6 percent of UK’s total emission (UK GHG inventory factsheet, 2010). Unlike other sectors nitrous oxide (N2O) is the dominant GHG emitted with emissions from agricultural soil dominating the agricultural sector.

The agricultural sector is very vast when it comes to calculating the emissions (refer to keynotes to understand terms/processes). Like road transport, emissions from stationary sources are estimated from their activity data (fuel use) and an emissions factor (specified by IPCC and UNECE), this process is used for estimating emissions from most subsectors. Similarly emissions from fermentation are estimated from statistical data (livestock numbers) and emission factors while those from agricultural soils are derived from numerical data (like fertilizer use) and various methods (which follow IPCC guidelines) like waste and manure management systems.

On the other hand mobile machinery are modeled based on specific details of the machine type (eg: population of machines, age profile, lifetime of equipments, annual usage etc). While emissions of breakdown products are estimated from the amount that is stored and the amount released.

There are many uncertainties in an emissions inventory factsheet where each sector needs to follow certain guidelines (if need be shift to more efficient guidelines) and update the inventory regularly (eg: emissions from animal wastes follow the UNFCCC’s recommendations of the inventory). Research in various fields for detailed, specific and accurate outcomes (like tracking sector specific emissions reduction progress) is carried out. Some examples for improvement include: using new parameters, improving resolution, reporting and representation of on farm mitigation measures.

Projected emissions (Updated Energy and Emissions Projections 2011, 2012) of the agriculture sector are expected to decrease by 12 percent from 2010 levels by 2025.

Keynotes:                                                             

·         Stationary source emission includes combustion of fuel (mostly heating).

·         There are various processes going on in the soil like aerobic, anaerobic decay, fermentation (food digestion) and denitrification of waste, manure (releasing gaseous components like methane and nitrous oxide).

·         Mobile machinery relates to emissions from equipments (tractors).

·         Breakdown products of agrochemicals release carbon dioxide.

·         Agricultural soil emissions arise from two sources:

i. Direct (fertilizers, nitrogen fixation, crop residues).

ii. Indirect (atmospheric deposition of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia, leaching and runoff of nitrate).

References:

·         UK GHG Inventory: http://ghgi.decc.gov.uk/

·        UK GHG National Statistics: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/hub/agriculture-environment/environment/climate-change/index.html

·Projectionsdata: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/about/ec_social_res/analytic_projs/en_emis_projs/en_emis_projs.aspx

·         Defra: http://www.defra.gov.uk/

·         Rothamsted Research: http://www.rothamsted.ac.uk/

GHG inventory continued

Moving on to sector specific emissions I will blog on major emitters like energy, transport, residential, agriculture and business plus industrial processes (blogs will not follow the same order).  These are all a continuation of the previous blog.

A)

BUSINESS:

 According to the UK GHG inventory the business sector (dominated by industrial combustion) accounted for 15 percent of UK’s total GHG emissions in 2010. Carbon dioxide is the dominant GHG, according to the UK GHG inventory.

Emissions from business sector have been categorized as:

i.                   Stationary combustion (include commercial and industrial combustion from iron, steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, paper, food, beverage etc) which are estimated by their emissions factor (specific to UK or taken from IPCC and UNECE(United Nations Economic Commission for Europe) inventory guideline) and activity data;

ii.                 Industrial off-road machinery (equipments like portable generators) estimates are modeled on statistical data (number of machines, their age profile and average annual usage).

iii.            Other emissions include emissions from HFC’s from refrigerators, foam blowing, fire extinguishers, solvents, and energy recovery in the chemicals industry. Emissions of F-gases (includes Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF6)) are estimated using a model (LCA approach) while that of carbon dioxide (energy recovery processes) is based on the amount of solvent recovered and the carbon content of solvents.

All parameters in the models are reviewed, updated and are in line with international inventory guidance.

The DECC’s Updated Energy and Emissions Projections (2011 and 2012) state that emissions from business sector are expected to decrease by 13 percent of 2012 levels, by 2025, with carbon dioxide still being the dominant gas.

INDUSTRIAL:

In the industrial sector (which contributes to 1.8 percent to UK’s GHG emissions in 2010) cement production, iron and steel sector cause considerable amount of emissions (CO2 being the dominant GHG emitted). The emissions (with special reference to nitrous oxide (N2O)) have decreased significantly since 1990 as abatement equipments have been installed, and some plants have been closed down (2009).

There are many industrial processes being used today and estimating their emissions will include some uncertainties, and require different considerations for calculations (example calculating from raw data like emissions intensity/factor and activity data or data provided from process operators). Emissions (reporting) have to follow and be similar to the international reporting guidelines.

Inspite of abatement equipments, future projections taken from DECC’s Updated Energy and Emissions Projections (both from 2011 and 2012), state that emissions from industrial processes are projected to increase be nine percent of 2010 levels, by 2025.

Reference:

·         UK GHG Inventory: http://ghgi.decc.gov.uk/

·         UK Updated Energy Projections: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/about/ec_social_res/analytic_projs/en_emis_projs/en_emis_projs.aspx

·         The Environment Agency: http://www.environment -agency.gov.uk/business/topics/pollution/32254.aspx

·         UK GHG National Statistics: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/hub/agriculture-environment/environment/climate-change/index.html

·         The Environment Agency: http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/

·         SEPA: http://www.sepa.org.uk/

·         UK Minerals Yearbook (British Geological Society): http://www.bgs.ac.uk/mineralsuk/statistics/UKStatistics.html

·         Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau: http://www.issb.co.uk/

Inventories.

I initially started off with a bit of chemistry; I have a habit of doing this as I enjoy the subject, so please bear with me if I repeat it in the future. I now will be focusing on sector based GHG emissions of UK (another field I have a fetish for) and adaptation strategies. One needs to understand that emissions come from various sources like fossil fuel combustion, most perceptible example but fossil fuels are used in many industries, transport, residential sectors (home appliances)etc. According to a report published by the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP), the key drivers of these emissions are activity, economics (revolves around GDP), energy intensity (energy needed/required) and carbon intensity (amount of CO2 or CO2eq gases released).

To make a global inventory data (uniform statistics) all the regions (annex I and annex II) and all the sectors (energy, industry, waste etc.) need to be included. These are useful analytical inputs for policy making. Many international agencies like the IPCC, IEA, and UNFCCC have inventory fact sheets.

The manner in which the inventory is  complied is based on guidelines mentioned in various IPCC reports,  like the revised IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 1996), the Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2000), and the Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC, 2003).

The activity data (use of fuel) in combination with the emissions factor (amount of CO2/CO2eq gases emitted per unit of the activity) help to make emission estimates.

The decrease in emissions in 2009 can be correlated with the effects of recession. While in 2010 (23percent less emissions than 1990) more than half the emissions are from the energy supply and transport sector.  

As per the UK GHG Inventory (UNFCCC coverage) (AEA, 2012) CO2 is the dominant GHG emitted, accounting for 85percent of emissions in 2010.

There may be errors in the inventory data factsheets (due to the vastness of the sectors) and so these are reviewed (annually) by UNFCCC experts or by the sector leads on the National Inventory Steering Committee (NISC).

Also past data from the current year (2012) inventory, projections of future emissions (variability in concentrations of a specific gas and these can be sector specific) can be made. For example Emissions (Energy Supply Sector) in 2025 are projected to be around 25.3% or 25.5% lower than in 2010 (based on Updated Energy and Emissions Projections: October 2011 (DECC) using historic data from the 2012 inventory).

The key data sources used in the compilation of the UK inventory are as follows:

-- Dept of Energy and Climate Change’s (DECC) Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES).

-- The Pollution Inventory (Environment Agency), the Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory (SEPA) and the Inventory of Statutory Releases (Northern Ireland Dept of the Environment, DoE).

-- EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) operator returns.

-- Transport Statistics Great Britain (Dept for Transport, DfT).

-- Agriculture in the UK (Dept for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs,Defra).

-- Data supplied directly by plant operators.

-- Data supplied by Trade Associations.

-- Waste management data (Waste Data Flow).

-- LULUCF data from the Countryside Survey (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry).

It is difficult to obtain easily compileable data for all sectors; hence complex models have to be used as in the case of methane emissions from landfill sites. While the Industrial emission estimates have to be plant specific due to variability in activity and emission intensity.

In my next blogs I will focus on sector based emissions and then move on to the strategies (sector specific). I feel that the GHG emissions are a cause of our activities and so it is we who need to try and control our actions and use our technologies wisely.

References:

UUK GHG Inventory: http://ghgi.decc.gov.uk/

UK GHG National Statistics: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/hub/agriculture environment/environment/climate-change/index.html

UK Updated Energy Projections: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/about/ec_social_res/analytic_projs/en_emis_projs/en_emis_projs.aspx

 IPCC Guidelines http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/index.html

"Ignorance is Bliss", but not when our Environment is concerned.

As per the book, 'Climate Vulnerability Monitor: A Guide to the Cold Calculus of A Hot Planet', the impacts of climate change and carbon intensive economy cost the world 1.6 percent of the total global GDP (gross domestic product). The Stern review states that the cost of mitigating and adapting to climate change (i.e if we take strong, sustained actions now) will cost us approximately one percent of the total GDP each year, which is far less than the five to 20 percent required to combat the consequences of global warming in the future(delayed action). This review leads to a simple conclusion: “the benefits of strong and early action far outweigh the economic costs of not acting”.

When all these and many more facets are so evident why are we still ignorant?Why don’t we realize that there will be no earth left if we focus our attention to increasing GDP? To conclude I would like to quote  Mark Twain (taken from the Inconvenient Truth), that what gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know it’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.

Reference:

Climate Vulnerability Monitor, DARA: http://daraint.org/

  

Did you know?

Do all the all anthropogenic/natural emissions cause global warming? This question kept coming to me after I read about the effects of a few aerosols, especially sulphur dioxide (sources are: fossil fuels burning, metal smeltering, volcanic eruptions) and carbon rich aerosols (brown clouds), on solar insolations. The focus is on SO2 in this blog.

As per an editorial essay by P.J Crutzen some atmospheric particles (SO2 and organic carbon) act as reflectors and scatter solar radiations and prevent it from reaching the earth’s surface. In some cases these particles act as a nuclei for cloud droplets (forming brown clouds), where the water droplets coalesce around the pollutants, these then affect “the micro physical and optical properties of clouds, affecting precipitation and cloud albedo” (e.g. Rosenfeld, 2000; Ramanathan et al., 2001; Ramaswamy et al., 2001). These cool the earth's surface by reducing the incoming sunlight. This has been observed in volcanic eruptions e.g., during the volcanic eruption in June 1991,Mount Pinatubo injected some 10 Tg S, initially as SO2, into the tropical stratosphere (Wilson et al., 1993; Bluth et al., 1992). In this case the particles cooled the earth’s surface on average by 0.5 ◦ C in the year following the eruption (Lacis and Mishchenko, 1995). Effects of these clouds have been found to extend thousands of kilometers from the source. Studies reveal that reflective particles are found in the Troposphere and the Stratosphere, and these have a residence time of a week and one to two years respectively.

But on the other hand these aerosols cause acid rain (SO2) and may affect the hydrological cycle which affects agriculture (brown cloud), and also causes ecological damage (eg yellowing of the Taj Mahal). The pollution particles also cause more than 500,000 global premature deaths per year (as per the World Health Organization, Nel 2005). Although there is a lot of research required in this field, some believe that the increase in concentrations of these aerosols will be a solution to curb global warming. But this leads to a catch 22 situation. What is your opinion on this?

Report: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/may/11/global-dimming-pollution

Dilemma!!!

Through a whole lot surveys carried out in India last year on the awareness of Global Warming and its implications, Mr. Samir Nazareth’s study revealed that a majority of people are unaware of the terminology (there is an urgent need for national awareness campaigns) although they had, to some extent, been affected by the impacts of climate change and knew that humans are the root cause of this global phenomenon. One of the questions out of the many that arose was whether this lack of awareness was working as a gain for some. Apart from the lack of casual evidence put forth to the public arena was identified, there is a lack of understanding among the public to change their consumption patterns. The people want to be informed, involved and want the government to take immediate and aggressive actions.

This is a very interesting report that I came across on how there is a need to clear the smog around Climate Change…

To get a detailed idea on this follow the link: http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/clear-the-smog-around-climate-change-information/article4011367.ece

What should the Government and other environmental organizations focus on: working on Climate Change with just a few experts in this arena or should the focus be diverted temporarily to creating mass awareness campaigns which will get together a lot of people various fields?

Stay tuned, there’s a lot more coming your way.

 Thanks for reading…

Why have just a few gases made it to the GHG list?

When one kilogramme of gas is evaluated against the same amount of carbon dioxide in a stipulated time, we can find a measure of the relative global warming contribution, technically known as Global Warming Potential (GWP).The time span is significant to maintain uniformity in the GWP, as each Greenhouse Gas (GHG) has a different life span in the atmosphere before it breaks down or is removed. Normally, for official reports, a time span of 100 years is usually used. If a gas absorbs radiations of a wavelength which is already being absorbed by the atmosphere, then the GWP is low, on the other hand, if it absorbs light at a wavelength that normally passes through the atmosphere (without being absorbed) then the GWP is high.

Gases	Formula	Lifespan	GWP
			20	100		500
Carbon dioxide	CO2	Variable	1	1	1
Methane	CH4	12±3	72	25	7.6
Nitrous oxide	N2O	114	289	298	153
Sulphur hexafluoride	SF6	3200	16300	22800	32600
Chlorofluorocarbons	CFC12	45	1100	10,900	5200

Since the industrial revolution, concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased linearly. The GHGs are found to have a tendency to absorb and emit infrared (thermal) radiations. These gas molecules have two or more component atoms, which are loosely bound, due to which they vibrate on absorption of heat. When the infrared radiations strike a molecule such as carbon dioxide and causes its bonds to bend and vibrate (this is called the absorption of IR energy), the molecule gains extra kinetic energy that may either be transmitted to other molecules through molecular collision or be re-radiated back to the space, earth causing a general heating of the earth and near surface atmosphere. The major components of the atmosphere (N2 and O2) are two-atom molecules are tightly bound, and so they cannot vibrate, as a consequence they neither absorb heat nor do they contribute to the greenhouse effect. On the contrary it is believed that these gases allow the radiations to pass through the (near surface) atmosphere.

                                 Eg of effect of infrared radiations on CO2 gas. 

The dips in the lines are caused by the absorption of energy; hence only 10% of the energy is transmitted.

Due to accelerated anthropogenic activities (combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation etc) and the long life span (variable), the concentrations of CO2 are relatively high amongst all the other gases making it the dominant GHG. Although water vapor is the real strongest GHG in the atmosphere its concentration is kept in control due to precipitation and so they are not as harmful as CO2.

I hope this blog helped in understanding why the GHG’s cause global warming.

Thank you for reading, stay tuned there is a lot more coming up.